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2024-12-13 04:59:56

Yardeni, Wall Street Strategist: The Federal Reserve should keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting. Yardeni Research believes that at the upcoming FOMC meeting, US policymakers should keep interest rates unchanged and assess the economic situation. "Policy committees should take time to see how the economy will evolve in the coming months after Trump wins the election," strategists such as Ed Yardeni said in the report. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, asserted at the last meeting that policymakers "can't (or won't) model the new government's fiscal policy before it is implemented". Although the impact of tariffs and tax cuts is still uncertain, the basic view is that inflation is still too high, real GDP growth is strong, and the labor market is close to full employment, which is likely to contradict the relaxation of monetary policy.In October, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, and the trend of steady improvement continued to consolidate. The General Administration of Market Supervision announced today (10th) that in October, 2024, China's corporate credit index was 158.83 points, up 0.47 points from September, and the steady improvement of corporate credit level continued to consolidate.CICC: The non-agricultural data in November supported the Fed to continue to cut interest rates. The CICC research report pointed out that after being seriously hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the United States rose sharply to 227,000 in November, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. On the whole, the labor market is still in a state of "the momentum of employment growth is weakening, but the job market itself is not weak", which will provide reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December. However, we also predict that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, because as interest rates approach the neutral level, policymakers will become more cautious. One prediction risk is the impact of Trump's immigration policy on the labor market. At present, we tend to have a moderate impact, but we also need to pay close attention to the possibility of extreme situations. Based on non-agricultural data, we believe that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again this month.


The decline in the yield of major inter-bank interest rate bonds has expanded, and the decline in the yield of major inter-bank interest rate bonds has expanded. The yield of 10-year treasury bonds "24 interest-bearing treasury bonds 11" has dropped by 2.5bp to 1.88%, continuing to hit a record low; The yield of 30-year active bond "24 Special Bond 06" went down 3.5bp to 2.0750%.Soochow securities: Market sentiment is expected to boost allocation opportunities in pro-cyclical directions. The soochow securities Research Report pointed out that in the short term, policy easing is expected to further heat up, and market sentiment is expected to be boosted. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to allocation opportunities in pro-cyclical directions. Before and after the inflection point of previous economic cycles, due to the obvious increase of investors' attention to policies, market transactions at the end of the year often revolve around policy expectations. Compared with 2012, 2014 and 2022, with the gradual landing of macro boots at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the market style may switch to the broader market in stages. In the short term, the market sentiment will be significantly boosted, and the pro-cyclical style is expected to usher in configuration opportunities.Millennium Capital has increased its office space in Hong Kong. According to Sing Tao Daily, Millennium Capital Management Asia leased another floor of the second phase of Hong Kong Central International Financial Center. Millennium will lease 46 floors of about 23,909 square feet of space until September 2027. The rent for new office space is estimated at around HK$ 120 per square foot. The company has rented the 43rd floor of the same building.


Sources: The current Secretary-General of OPEC, Ghais, will be re-elected. Four representatives of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said that the organization will re-elect the current Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais for a three-year term at a virtual meeting on December 10th. A source said that the meeting will start at 18:30 Beijing time today and is expected to be short and only deal with administrative affairs.Liu Jianchao met with New Zealand Ambassador to China Maury. According to the website of the International Liaison Department of the CPC Central Committee, on December 9, Liu Jianchao, Minister of the International Liaison Department of the CPC Central Committee, met with the outgoing New Zealand Ambassador to China Maury in Beijing. Liu Jianchao spoke highly of Mao Rui's contribution to the development of China-Singapore relations during his tenure. Liu Jianchao said that since China and Singapore established a comprehensive strategic partnership for 10 years, pragmatic cooperation in various fields has yielded fruitful results. At present, the world situation is uncertain and unstable. China and New Zealand are both in the Asia-Pacific region. A stable and sustainable Sino-New Zealand relationship is conducive to regional and world peace and prosperity. China is willing to work with Singapore to close inter-party exchanges, strengthen political dialogue, deepen pragmatic cooperation in various fields, and promote the stability and far-reaching relations between China and Singapore.South Korean opposition leader Li Zaiming said that the budget will be dealt with today.

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